Tesla’s long pursuit of fully self-driving cars has found a new stage — and it’s playing out in China. Elon Musk believes Chinese regulators could give the final approval for the company’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software by early 2026. It’s a claim that has caught the attention of investors far beyond Beijing, including those in Nairobi who follow global markets with growing sophistication.
Musk spoke at Tesla’s annual meeting in Austin with the calm confidence of a man who has made a career out of turning improbable ideas into reality. He said regulators in China had already granted partial approval and that full authorisation might come “around February or March.” It sounded routine, but the implications are immense. China is Tesla’s largest market outside the United States, and its decision will shape how the world views autonomous technology. For many analysts, Beijing’s approval would be a defining moment — the point where driverless transport shifts from science fiction to policy reality.
For Chinese customers who paid roughly ¥64,000 (about KSh 1.3 million) for FSD, patience is wearing thin. The software still cannot complete a full journey on its own or shift gears automatically. Drivers post short clips online showing Teslas gliding confidently through crowded intersections, only to hesitate at construction barriers or unusual lane markings. The footage captures both progress and limitation — a company that can almost deliver autonomy but not quite. Musk insists the finishing touches are underway. Engineers in Shanghai have been teaching FSD to read Chinese road signs and adapt to local driving habits.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has kept silent on timelines. Domestic rivals, however, have not waited. BYD, Nio, and Xpeng offer advanced driver-assist features as standard equipment, often at lower prices. Tesla’s market share in China has slipped from about 15 percent to 8 percent over the past two years. Analysts say that full FSD approval could stabilise that decline, but delays would erode Tesla’s early lead in a fiercely competitive market.
Musk has worked hard to reassure regulators. Tesla built a data centre in Shanghai to ensure that all Chinese driving data stays inside the country, a nod to Beijing’s sensitivity about information security. The move improved trust, but scrutiny remains. Across the Pacific, U.S. authorities are investigating crashes linked to FSD in roughly 2.9 million vehicles. One controversial setting, nicknamed “Mad Max mode,” allows abrupt lane changes that critics say push the limits of safety. Chinese officials are likely following those proceedings closely before deciding how far to let Tesla go.
Meanwhile, Musk’s personal fortune has become inseparable from Tesla’s success. This month shareholders approved a record-shattering compensation plan worth up to US$1 trillion if he meets a series of enormous targets: 20 million cars produced annually, 1 million robotaxis on the road, 1 million humanoid robots sold, and US$400 billion in profits. Every one of those milestones depends on FSD. Without regulatory approval in China — the world’s largest car market — the vision of a global robotaxi network remains a dream in the showroom.
At the Austin meeting, Musk made a show of his ambition. Robots danced beside him as he announced the “Cybercab,” a steering-less two-seater built for the coming robotaxi era. He teased an upgraded Roadster and talked of building a “gigantic chip factory” to power Tesla’s artificial-intelligence ambitions. To investors, it sounded like the start of another industrial revolution. To regulators, it may have sounded like a man promising to rewrite the rules faster than they can be written.
This drama unfolds against the backdrop of tense U.S.–China relations. Trade disputes and technology controls have placed companies like Tesla squarely in the middle. In 2021, Chinese regulators forced Tesla to recall vehicles over battery issues and temporarily banned them from government compounds for security reasons. Yet Tesla remains the only foreign automaker with partial approval for advanced driver-assist systems in China — a rare gesture of confidence in an era of geopolitical rivalry.
For Kenya, this story isn’t just a distant headline. Interest in electric mobility is growing across East Africa. Nairobi now hosts ambitious startups such as BasiGo, Roam and Kiri EV, which are putting electric buses, motorcycles and delivery vans on the road. The Kenyan government has introduced incentives for local EV assembly to reduce fuel imports and cut emissions. While self-driving cars are still years away from navigating Uhuru Highway, the underlying technologies — battery management, AI navigation and sensor integration — are beginning to shape the local transport sector.
Kenyan traders who invest through online CFD platforms or global brokers see Tesla as more than a foreign stock; it’s a barometer for where innovation and capital are heading. A smooth rollout of FSD in China could lift Tesla’s share price and send ripples through portfolios from Wall Street to Westlands. “We watch Tesla the way we used to watch oil prices,” says Peter Njoroge, a Nairobi-based investor who tracks global tech equities. “If China says yes to self-driving, the whole EV market will rally.”
Musk has also courted Chinese leaders directly. During a visit to Beijing last year, he met Premier Li Qiang and praised China’s manufacturing efficiency, calling Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory one of the most productive in the world. The meeting was a reminder that while Washington grows wary of Chinese technology, Musk continues to build bridges. The Biden administration is now reviewing export controls on AI chips — hardware crucial for Tesla’s autonomous systems — a move that makes Chinese approval even more vital for the company’s global strategy.
The coming months will determine whether Tesla’s gamble pays off. A green light from Beijing could allow the company to launch its first robotaxi fleets and new FSD subscriptions, unlocking billions in high-margin revenue. A delay could frustrate customers and strengthen local competitors. A rejection would be a major blow to Musk’s trillion-dollar dream.
In Nairobi’s traffic, the idea of cars that drive themselves might still feel remote. Yet change has a way of sneaking up. A decade ago, few imagined electric buses gliding quietly through the Central Business District. Today they do. Ten years from now, discussions may shift from charging stations to autonomous corridors.
For now, Kenyan investors watch their trading apps and news feeds, tracking every twist in Tesla’s story. Each Musk announcement moves global markets, and by extension, their own. From Silicon Valley to the streets of Nairobi, one thing is clear: the road to autonomy in China is a road the whole world is watching.